Inflated population statistics in Papua are a source of corruption, conflict and power struggles, but unlike many of Papua’s troubles, this one has a possible fix: a major effort by the new Jokowi government to ensure that the 2020 census produces an accu Read More

Indonesia urgently needs to move forward on a policy for repatriating its nationals in Syrian camps and prison. Read More

The low Islamist turnout in protests following the April 2019 presidential election reflects a changing relationship between Islamists and the state, with the government moving more aggressively against “radical Islam”, loosely defined, and wary Islamists Read More

The Indonesian government is under little pressure to address the systematic repression of China’s Uyghur Muslims because many Indonesians see the crackdown as a legitimate response to separatism; do not trust reports of human rights organisations; or bel Read More

Pro-ISIS cells in Indonesia have been emboldened, not discouraged, by ISIS defeats in the Middle East although their capacity to undertake terrorist attacks remains low. Read More

Indonesian Islamists are united in their determination to defeat President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) in elections on 17 April 2019 but they have little chance of success. Read More

The impact of ISIS in the Philippines will be long-lasting, not only in terms of more violence but also in the appeal of a “pure” Islamic state as an alternative to perceived neglect and injustice. Read More

Military measures alone will not reduce the risk of Abu Sayyaf kidnappings or terrorist transit in the Sulu and Sulawesi Seas. Read More

Salafism, the ultra puritan stream of Islam, has evolved very differently in Malaysia than in Indonesia, with more of its leaders seeking political engagement, sometimes to avoid being labelled extremist. Read More

The crackdown following the May 2018 Surabaya bombings will be an occasion for the regrouping of pro-ISIS elements in Indonesia, but support for Islamic State will continue. Read More

The results of local elections in West Kalimantan and Papua raise a few red flags for the future. Read More

Indonesia is facing an infrastructure crunch with unprecedented numbers of terrorist suspects arrested under a newly strengthened anti-terrorism law and not enough maximum security facilities ready to hold them. Read More

The partnership between the Indonesian government and the big social media companies to remove violent content online is improving, but extremists are still finding low tech means around high tech blockages. Read More

The government of Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has tried to manage domestic anger over Myanmar’s violence against the Rohingya by a combination of high-level diplomacy and humanitarian aid. Read More

Local elections scheduled for 27 June 2018 across Indonesia include several races in Papua, including for governor and deputy governor, that have raised concerns about possible conflict. While small outbreaks of localised violence may take place, it is st Read More

The Islamist alliance that brought down the Jakarta governor in 2016 has broken up but it has made a major mark on Indonesian politics in two ways. Read More

West Kalimantan’s election for governor on 27 June 2018 will be a contest between candidates divided by religion and ethnicity, exacerbated by the fallout from Jakarta politics, but local observers say the risk of violence is overstated. Read More

Members of a Bandung-based faction of the old Darul Islam movement who joined ISIS might be persuaded to disengage if the Indonesian government can manage their detention wisely. Read More

The Philippine government urgently needs to analyse all information gleaned from custodial debriefings of those arrested in connection with the Marawi siege and earlier pro-ISIS activities so that it can better formulate strategies to counter extremism. Read More

Indonesian President Jokowi has given more personal attention to Papua than any of his predecessors but conflict there – among clans, between indigenous Papuans and migrants, between pro-independence groups and the state – remains high. Read More

The Indonesian government needs to work with overseas labor recruiting agencies and civil society organisations to ensure that migrant workers, particularly women, are not drawn into extremist cells. Read More

The battle for Marawi in the southern Philippines is likely to have long-term repercussions for extremism in Southeast Asia. Read More

Southeast Asian and Bangladeshi extremism are becoming increasingly intertwined, making the traditional distinction between South and Southeast Asia obsolete, at least as far as counter-terrorism is concerned. Read More

A rebuilt, restructured Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) remains a threat, not because it is likely to resume a campaign of violence but because it could give rise to a more militant splinter. Read More

Pro-ISIS extremists continue to recruit and radicalise fellow inmates in Indonesian prisons, while structural problems of the prison system continue to defeat efforts at deradicalisation and disengagement. Read More

Support for ISIS has deepened cooperation among extremists in maritime Southeast Asia, making it more important than ever for law enforcement agencies to have expertise on groups outside their own borders. Read More

A bid by traditionalist clerics in rural Aceh to increase their influence at the expense of urban rivals is drawing the local government into potentially discriminatory definitions of what constitutes “Acehnese” Islam. Read More

More extensive consultation, better maps and a better grievance mechanism could have helped prevent a conflict at a palm oil plantation in Kubu Raya, Read More

An anti-vice vigilante group in Solo, Central Java has become the go-to source of recruits for one Indonesian ISIS leader in Syria. Read More

Next month will mark the first anniversary of an outbreak of communal violence in Tolikara, a remote district of the Papuan central highlands, that involved indigenous Christians, Muslim migrants and poorly trained security forces. Read More

The convergence of a non-violent hardline campaign against Shi’ism with a new determination of pro-ISIS groups to wage war at home is increasing the possibility of violent attacks on Indonesia’s Shi’a minority Read More

The Indonesian military (Tentara Nasional Indonesia, TNI) continues to press for an expanded role in internal security, driven by distrust of civilian politicians, Read More

Competition among Indonesian ISIS leaders is increasing the risk of more violence. Read More

Social media usage among Indonesian ISIS supporters is not necessarily changing patterns of recruitment but it is ensuring that ISIS propaganda is reaching new audiences. Read More

Several different groups appear to be deliberately burnishing the image of a former rebel-turned-outlaw in Aceh to draw attention to his criticism of the provincial government, led by senior leaders of the Free Aceh Movement. Read More

The resilience of the pro-independence movement in Papua—now fifty years old--suggests the government should focus on avoiding further radicalisation rather than trying to eradicate it. Read More

“Islamic State” (IS) supporters are a minority among convicted terrorists in Indonesian prisons, and some of those who have sworn allegiance have done so for reasons that have nothing to do with ideology or religion. Read More